Google announced recently that they are going to be open sourcing the VP8 codec (aka WebM), acquired sometime ago, and most likely, converting YouTube video to the new standard. This move is motivated by the recent Mpeg-LA ballyhoo surrounding the h.264 patent asteroid that is supposed to destroy us all in 2015.

VP8 sounds like a good idea, right? Not so fast.

A host of Google partners including Mozilla and Opera jumped behind it immediately. However, Microsoft is keeping quiet, and Steve Jobs is being passive aggressive as usual about it. So, right when we all seemed to be heading towards universal h.264/html 5 acceptance, we’ve hit a huge roadblock.

Here’s what we know from the gadget pundits.

• VP8 is much like h.264, but technically not quite as good. On2 says otherwise.
• VP8 is free. Mpeg-LA says, “Not so fast.”
• Adobe says Flash will support it.
• Sorenson is adding VP8 to their 6.5 release.

Prediction

This will probably end poorly. Apple won’t support it ’cause Steve’s on his period, and Microsoft will say they came up with something better, which will not be better, but in fact, will be worse.

And we’ll all have to encode everything 8 times for our clients, because some have PC’s without Quicktime, and the others have Apple’s without FlipforMac, and the rest can’t find the volume on their speakers.